Global Research.ca, Wednesday, October 29,
2008
Canada needs a Liberal-NDP-Green Coalition
By John Ryan
Canada’s last two elections are proof positive that
we have a flawed electoral system. Does it make any
sense that it’s impossible to get a government that
reflects the views of the majority of our population?
How is it that a little more than a third of the
electorate can determine who forms Canada’s government?
There is no question that Canada has a dysfunctional
political system in which the views of the majority of
Canadians cannot be represented by a single political
party. Although almost two-thirds of Canada's voters in
the last two elections opposed the platform, policies,
and philosophy of the Conservative party, it is the
Conservatives who have formed the government. The
majority vote was split amongst four parties, thereby
thwarting the predominant will of the people and making
a mockery of democracy. And this may very well continue
into the future.
If the NDP and the Greens keep getting progressively
stronger, it will guarantee a split vote, resulting in
an unending series of Conservative governments.
Moreover, if Gilles Duceppe should retire it would
weaken the Bloc Quebecois and we would then get majority
Conservative governments.
So what do we do? How do we get out of a system that
seems to ensure an unending regime of Conservative
governments – governments that do not have the support
of the bulk of our population? In the best interests of
Canada, it's up to progressive-minded citizens to urge
the Liberals, the NDP, and the Greens to form a
coalition. It will then be up to these parties to act
responsibly, to set aside narrow partisan politics, and
to establish a formal coalition. It's only then that the
majority of Canadians would be in a position to vote for
a political entity that would reflect their views,
values, and interests.
Coalitions are commonly formed after an election, but
in Canada, at the present time, an agreement to form a
coalition by the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens would
have to be made before the next election. Because of the
nature of the Bloc Quebecois, it would be difficult to
include them in a coalition, and without them, after
another election, the Conservatives would probably once
again outnumber the Liberals and the NDP, as they did in
2006 and 2008. However, if a coalition of these parties
could be established before the next election, a unique
election strategy could be used that would have
dramatically different results.
In a coalition, the three parties would retain their
individual identities, but would have to agree on a
common platform or agenda, not on all matters, but only
on some basic, fundamental issues. They would also have
to agree on an election strategy, whenever an election
might be called. The strategy should be a
straightforward matter, and once agreed upon, it could
be the driving force to hammer out a platform, and
thereby create a coalition.
A meaningful election strategy, equally in the
interest of all three parties, would be an agreement to
run all the incumbent candidates, Liberal and NDP,
without opposition from the other members of the
coalition. Although the Greens have no elected members,
it would nevertheless be in their interests to agree to
this. Such a strategy would guarantee the reelection of
every currently elected member. As for the seats held by
the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois, it is my
suggestion that the coalition should run a single
candidate in each of these constituencies from the party
that had the largest vote in the 2008 election.
From Elections Canada data I have compiled a set of
tables that provide the factual basis for a winning
election strategy. Table 1 shows that in the next
election the Liberals would be entitled to run 207
candidates, the NDP 96, and the Green Party 5. However,
Table 2 is of greater consequence since it shows that in
the 2008 election there were 60 constituencies where the
combined Liberal-NDP-Green vote exceeded the
Conservative or the Bloc Quebecois vote. In the next
election, a coalition candidate, from the party with the
greatest vote, would have a strong likelihood of winning
the seat. In this manner the Liberals could possibly win
an extra 49 seats, the NDP 9, and the Green party 2.
Table 3 shows that in the next election, with this
procedure, the Liberals could win up to 125 seats, the
NDP 46, and the Green Party 2 – for a majority coalition
government of 173 seats. In such a coalition it would
seem reasonable that cabinet seats would be determined
by the proportionate share of members in the government,
with 72 percent going to the Liberals, 27 percent to the
NDP, and 1 percent to the Green Party. It would also
seem reasonable if the leader of the NDP became the
deputy prime minister.
Given this situation, in the next election the
Conservatives could be reduced to 94 seats and the Bloc
Quebecois to 41 – in both cases, roughly proportionate
to their share of the vote. But the biggest winner of
all would be the Canadian people – it would be democracy
in action where the majority of the population would
have a government that would reflect the beliefs, values
and interests of the bulk of Canada’s people.
To put the coalition proposal in perspective, for
years the minority of Canadians on the political right
languished in the wilderness because of a split in their
political movement. However, after a series of
misadventures, they finally coalesced into a single
party--albeit with some alienation and disaffection in
their ranks. Basically, their strategy worked--and
although they continue to receive only a bit more than a
third of the vote, this is now the second minority
government that they have formed.
Although the people on the political right coalesced
into a single party, this would be impractical and
highly inadvisable for the Liberals, the NDP and the
Greens – each have their unique strengths and distinct
identities which could be preserved in a dynamic
coalition. Coalitions occur on a regular basis in Europe
and in other parts of the world -- but so far, never in
Canada, although the NDP and the Liberals did cooperate
in the past. And it was at those times that some
progressive legislation was passed.
Undoubtedly, there will be opposition in each of the
parties to a coalition suggestion. However, it should be
possible to present convincing arguments that this would
be in the best interests of both our country and these
parties. For the NDP, being the smaller entity, there's
still the vivid memory of how the Progressive
Conservatives were subsumed by the Reform/Alliance
zealots. There's also the practical worry that such a
political realignment might result in a horse and rabbit
stew, strongly smelling of Liberal horse. But we are not
talking about merger; we are talking about a coalition,
so there would be no threat to a smaller party.
Furthermore, at this stage, for these three political
parties to be an effective political force, they need
one another. And stemming from this, the three parties
are in a position to exact compromises.
Through good faith negotiations they should be able
to agree that when they form a coalition government they
would enact some form of proportional representation or
a system of preferential voting – there are several to
choose from. This should be the most crucial provision
for both the NDP and the Green Party. Another key
feature for the NDP should be for the coalition
government to abandon any on-going commitments for
Canada's further integration into the U.S.A. and to
withdraw from the Security and Prosperity Partnership
which endangers Canada’s sovereignty. There should be no
problem for them to agree to enact a national child care
program (ideally it should be modelled on Quebec’s
system) and a national policy to work with First Nations
to resolve their crucial problems.
On matters of taxation, environment policies, and
other issues on which the parties disagree, there would
have to be compromise, and because of necessity, an
agreement of some type could be worked out.
The public should urge the parties to agree to put a
halt to the obsession of lowering taxes, which reduces
the quality of our social services. "Taxes are what we
pay for a civilized society" (U.S. Supreme Court Justice
Oliver Wendell Holmes). It's taxes collected by
governments that provide us with the wide array of
social services and infrastructure, such as schools,
medical services, libraries and parks, safe streets and
livable cities.
As for NAFTA, we should welcome Obama’s stated
intention to renegotiate the pact. In fact, if we had
the courage, it would be highly advisable to abrogate
NAFTA. Only then could Canada once again have an
independent energy policy. When it's in their interests,
the U.S. simply ignores NAFTA rulings, e.g., softwood
lumber. We would be far better off with the rules of the
World Trade Organization – and this should not affect
our trade relationship with the USA whatsoever. After
all, the USA trades with the rest of the world – without
NAFTA.
Aside from agreeing to enact progressive legislation,
a Liberal-NDP-Green coalition would put an end to the
possibility of a future Harper majority government –
something we were lucky to escape in 2008. The grim fact
is that a Conservative majority in just one term of
office could enable them to carry out most of their
underlying agenda and do irreparable harm to Canada’s
social and economic fabric.
Because of Harper’s tight control over all
communication from his party, he has been able to
present a rather benign and innocent image. However,
there is no reason to believe that the party has
actually turned its back on its original raison d'etre.
In fact, the Reform-Alliance agenda is still the basis
of the current Conservative Party. As such, a
Conservative majority would pose an unprecedented danger
to our country – and only a Liberal-NDP-Green coalition
could prevent this from happening.
As it now stands, with the Liberals in disarray,
Harper may proceed to govern by making almost every
piece of government business a confidence matter. If the
opposition parties should remain paralyzed with the fear
of causing another election, through this procedure
Harper could kill off the Canadian Wheat Board,
dismantle and sell off the CBC, legitimize Canadian and
American private clinics to undermine Canada’s health
care system, and wind down the federal government to be
in charge of little more than the military and to
represent Canada as a “community of provinces” at the
United Nations.
To remain as an impotent opposition, the Liberals and
the NDP would be accessories to the fact in allowing the
Harper government to do irreparable harm to Canada. This
would be a cowardly and shameful thing for them to do.
However, if they act intelligently, they are in a
position to get Harper and his party out of office.
Given the dangers that lie ahead of us, the Liberals,
the NDP and the Green Party should quickly proceed to
form a coalition – this would stop Harper dead in his
tracks. Once a coalition is established, the Liberals
and the NDP should welcome the opportunity to defeat the
Harper government, and following another election we
could get a government that would indeed reflect the
wishes of the majority of Canada’s population.
The fact that the Liberals are now faced with the
procedure for selecting a new leader should not stop
them from taking part in negotiations with the NDP and
the Green Party to form a coalition. They should see
this as a long term policy and the sooner they begin on
this the better it will be for them. The candidates for
the leadership should participate in the negotiations
and in this manner help to work out a unified long term
policy and strategy for the party.
Tables 1, 2 and 3 graphically support the argument
for a coalition and make such a conclusion almost
self-evident. Surely a government of this type would be
in the best interests of Canada and its people. But can
the leadership of these parties rise above short-term
partisan politics? At a time when our country
desperately needs this, are they capable of becoming
statesmen?
By acting responsibly these parties could carve out
an honourable place for themselves in Canada’s history.
Most importantly, they could alter the course of
Canada’s future – for the better.
John Ryan, Ph.D., is a retired professor of geography
and senior scholar at the University of Winnipeg. He can
be reached at jryan13@mts.net.
Table 1
Number of Liberal-NDP-Green Coalition candidates for the
next election
All Liberal and NDP Incumbents to be unopposed
Candidates in constituencies won by Conservatives or
Bloc Quebecois to be from the Party that got the largest
vote in 2008
Province |
Liberal
Party |
NDP |
Green Party |
|
Col. 1* |
Col.
2** |
Total |
Col. 1* |
Col.
2** |
Total |
Col. 1* |
Col.
2** |
Total |
B. C. |
5 |
8 |
13 |
9 |
14 |
23 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Alberta |
0 |
8 |
8 |
1 |
16 |
17 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
Saskatchewan |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Manitoba |
1 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Ontario |
38 |
47 |
85 |
17 |
3 |
20 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Quebec |
14 |
54 |
68 |
1 |
6 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N. Brunswick |
3 |
5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Nova Scotia |
5 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
P. E. I. |
3 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Nfld & Lab |
6 |
0 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
NWT |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Nunavut |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Yukon |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Totals |
77 |
130 |
207 |
37 |
59 |
96 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
*Column 1 = Incumbents, to run unopposed by other
coalition members
**Column 2 = New candidates to be from the Party that
got the largest vote in constituencies won by
Conservatives or Bloc Quebecois in 2008
Source: Compiled from Elections Canada data by John
Ryan.
Table 2
Constituencies where the combined Liberal-NDP-Green vote
exceeded the Conservative or Bloc Quebecois vote in 2008
Provinces |
No.
of |
Party with largest vote |
|
constituencies |
Liberal |
NDP |
Green |
British Columbia |
8 |
4 |
4 |
0 |
Alberta |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Saskatchewan |
3 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
Manitoba |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
Ontario |
29 |
27 |
1 |
1 |
Quebec |
9 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
New Brunswick |
4 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
Nova Scotia |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Prince Edward Island |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Newfoundland & Lab |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
NWT |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Nunavut |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Yukon |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total |
59 |
48 |
9 |
2 |
Source: Compiled from Elections Canada data by John
Ryan.
Table 3
Potential number of seats that could be won by a
Liberal-NDP-Green Coalition in the next election
Province |
Liberal Party |
NDP |
Green Party |
|
Col. 1* |
Col. 2** |
Total |
Col. 1* |
Col. 2** |
Total |
Col. 1* |
Col. 2** |
Total |
B. C. |
5 |
4 |
9 |
9 |
4 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Alberta |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Saskatchewan |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Manitoba |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Ontario |
38 |
27 |
65 |
17 |
1 |
18 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Quebec |
14 |
8 |
22 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N. Brunswick |
3 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Nova Scotia |
5 |
0 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
P. E. I. |
3 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Nfld. & Lab. |
6 |
0 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
NWT |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Nunavut |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Yukon |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Totals |
77 |
48 |
125 |
37 |
9 |
46 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
- Total potential seats for a Liberal-NDP-Green
Coalition - 173.
- In such a coalition it would seem reasonable
that the Cabinet would be composed of 72 percent
Liberals, 27 percent NDP and 1 percent from the
Green Party.
*Column 1 = Incumbents, to run unopposed by the other
coalition members.
**Column 2 = Candidates in constituencies where the
combined Liberal-NDP-Green vote exceeded the
Conservative or Bloc Quebecois vote in 2008. The
candidate would be from the Party that received the
largest vote. A coalition candidate in such a
constituency would have a strong likelihood of winning
the seat.
Source: Compiled from Elections Canada data by John
Ryan.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the
sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily
reflect those of the Centre for Research on
Globalization. The contents of this article are of sole
responsibility of the author(s). The Centre for Research
on Globalization will not be responsible or liable for
any inaccurate or incorrect statements contained in this
article.
© Copyright John Ryan, Global Research, 2008
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